According to Gizmodo, Elon Musk has told xAI staff that his company could achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the next couple of years, and maybe as soon as 2026. This is a shift from his May 2024 prediction, made in a reply to Google’s Logan Kilpatrick, that AGI would arrive “next year”—meaning by the end of 2025. The report also states Musk claimed xAI is securing around $20 to $30 billion in funding per year. This new timeline emerges just weeks before his 2025 prediction is set to definitively miss the mark. Musk’s announcement follows a pattern of dramatic AI warnings, including signing a March 2023 letter calling for a pause in AI development, which was followed shortly by the revelation he was secretly building his own AI project at Twitter.
Musk Moves The Goalposts Again
So here we are again. The year is almost over, and the “next year” AGI Musk promised for 2025 is nowhere in sight. Now the target is 2026. And honestly, does anyone believe this date is any more solid? Musk has a legendary track record of wildly optimistic timelines—Full Self Driving is perpetually a year away, the Cybertruck was years late, and don’t even get me started on the Mars colony. His predictions aren’t really forecasts; they’re tools. They generate headlines, stir up excitement (or fear), and most importantly, they drive investment. When he talks about xAI pulling in tens of billions annually, that’s the real point of the exercise. The AGI date is just the shiny lure.
The Convenient Timing of AI Fear
Here’s the thing that really gets me. Remember when Musk was one of the loudest voices warning that AI could destroy humanity? He even signed that high-profile letter calling for a six-month development pause. That was in March 2023. By July, he’d announced xAI. It turns out he wasn’t worried about AI; he was worried about being left behind while OpenAI and others raced ahead. His “concern” was a strategic feint, a way to frame the narrative while he scrambled to build his own competitor. Now that he’s in the game, the doom-mongering has quieted, replaced by boundless optimism about his own company’s imminent world-changing breakthrough. Funny how that works.
What Is AGI Anyway?
Part of the problem with these predictions is that “AGI” is a fantastically slippery concept. Is it an AI that can do any job a human can? Is it about self-awareness or consciousness? The definition is so fuzzy that claiming you’ll achieve it by a specific date is almost meaningless. It lets you declare victory under your own terms. For some, AGI means a system that can genuinely reason and understand. For others, it might just be a very, very good chatbot that can pass a bunch of tests. Musk’s shifting date feels less like a scientific estimate and more like a moving finish line he can cross whenever it’s most advantageous.
The Real Product Is Hype
Look at the whole picture. AGI by 2026. A million Optimus robots per year in five years. A flying car demo by the end of *this* year. These aren’t isolated predictions; they’re part of a perpetual hype machine designed to keep Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI at the center of the technological conversation. The auto-response from xAI to media inquiries—”Legacy Media Lies”—tells you everything about the contempt for anyone who might apply scrutiny. When you’re trying to build the future, who has time for pesky facts or missed deadlines? The cycle just resets. So mark your calendar for 2026. But maybe write it in pencil.
