Industry Experts Cast Doubt on Qualcomm and MediaTek’s Alleged Shift to Samsung’s 2nm Process

Rumors of Foundry Switch Face Timing and Cost Hurdles

Recent speculation about Qualcomm and MediaTek transitioning their 2nm chip production to Samsung Foundry is meeting significant skepticism from industry insiders. According to supply chain sources familiar with both companies’ roadmaps, the proposed timing makes such a switch practically impossible given current development cycles and existing commitments.

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The South Korean Narrative Versus Technical Reality

Unnamed sources speaking to DigiTimes have characterized the rumors as potentially being part of a “broader South Korean tech industry narrative” rather than reflecting actual business decisions. The fundamental timing issue stems from the fact that any shift to Samsung’s 2nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) technology would result in chipsets launching no earlier than 2027, while both companies have products scheduled for 2025-2026 timeframes.

Industry observers note that next-generation System-on-Chip (SoC) designs are typically finalized or taped out well in advance of production. This reality makes last-minute foundry switches particularly challenging, especially when dealing with cutting-edge process nodes requiring extensive co-optimization between chip design and manufacturing process.

MediaTek’s 2nm Tape-Out Adds to the Mystery

Adding complexity to the situation, MediaTek recently announced it had successfully completed the tape-out of its first 2nm chipset, scheduled to arrive in late 2026. The company notably did not disclose its foundry partner for this milestone, leaving room for speculation while failing to confirm any Samsung involvement.

The timing of MediaTek’s announcement suggests that if the company were indeed switching to Samsung’s 2nm process, such a decision would have needed to occur much earlier in the development cycle. The advanced stage of MediaTek’s 2nm program indicates long-standing foundry partnerships already in place.

TSMC’s Pricing Versus Competitive Necessity

While reports of TSMC charging approximately $30,000 per 2nm wafer initially sparked concerns about affordability, industry sources indicate that both Qualcomm and MediaTek have reached acceptance with these costs. The driving factor appears to be the competitive necessity to match Apple’s technological pace rather than pure cost considerations., as our earlier report

According to the latest reports, both semiconductor designers have determined that maintaining technological parity with Apple justifies the premium pricing. This represents a significant strategic shift from earlier generations where both companies occasionally lagged behind Apple in process node adoption.

Historical Context and Future Considerations

The only recent instance where both Qualcomm and MediaTek found themselves a generation behind Apple occurred with their Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 and Dimensity 9300 processors. This timing coincided with TSMC’s challenging first-generation 3nm process (N3B), which reportedly cost Apple approximately $1 billion in tape-out expenses alone for its M3 series chips.

Current estimates place the manufacturing cost of Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 at around $280 per unit, while MediaTek’s Dimensity 9500 approaches $200. Even with anticipated price increases for 2nm production, both companies appear willing to absorb these costs to avoid falling behind competitively.

The Samsung Evaluation Conundrum

Industry watchers remain puzzled by Qualcomm’s continued engagement with Samsung, including requests for 2nm GAA samples of the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 for evaluation purposes. This activity suggests one of several scenarios:

• Long-term strategic planning for potential future partnerships
• Standard industry due diligence in maintaining multiple foundry options
• Leveraging position in negotiations with TSMC
• Genuine interest in specific Samsung 2nm GAA capabilities

Media Hype Versus Business Reality

The semiconductor industry frequently sees rumors gain traction regardless of their factual basis, particularly when involving major players and cutting-edge technologies. Korean media outlets have historically been enthusiastic about promoting potential domestic technological achievements, sometimes ahead of confirmed business developments.

This pattern of speculation, while understandable given the competitive dynamics of the global semiconductor industry, often outpaces actual business developments. The current situation appears to follow this established pattern, with rumors spreading rapidly across hundreds of outlets despite questionable foundations.

The Path Forward for Foundry Relationships

Industry analysts suggest that even if Qualcomm and MediaTek don’t immediately place 2nm orders with Samsung, both companies will closely monitor the progress of Samsung’s 2nm GAA process and its implementation in the upcoming Exynos 2600. Exceptional performance or yield advantages could potentially lead to future partnerships, even if the current rumors prove premature.

The semiconductor foundry business remains intensely competitive, with technological leadership, pricing, and production capacity all playing crucial roles in determining partnerships. While current evidence suggests continued TSMC dominance at the 2nm node, the landscape could shift as production matures and alternative technologies prove their merits.

References & Further Reading

This article draws from multiple authoritative sources. For more information, please consult:

• https://profile.google.com/cp/Cg0vZy8xMWM3NDB2MmIyGgA
• https://google.com/preferences/source?q=wccftech.com

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