According to TechSpot, citing a new Omdia report, US PC shipments fell for a second consecutive quarter in Q3 2025, dropping 1% year-over-year to 17.7 million units. The market is split, with the consumer segment actually growing 8% to 7.6 million units while the commercial segment dipped 1%. The real story is the education and government segment, which plummeted a massive 23%. Analyst Greg Davis points to reduced federal funding and record layoffs pausing tech spending as key causes. Despite the quarterly declines, Omdia expects the full year 2025 to end with 4% growth, buoyed by the holiday season and the Windows 10 to 11 transition. The top three US vendors remain HP (24.4%), Dell (22.5%), and Lenovo (18.1%).
A Tale of Two Markets
So what’s really going on here? We’re seeing a classic case of two markets moving in opposite directions. On one hand, you have regular consumers who are, against all odds, still buying PCs. Think about that for a second. With all the talk about tariffs, inflation, and shaky consumer sentiment, people are still upgrading their home machines. That’s pretty resilient.
But on the other hand, the big institutional spenders have slammed on the brakes. A 23% drop in education and government is staggering. That’s not just a slowdown; that’s a collapse in procurement. When federal funding dries up and school budgets get slashed, tech refresh cycles are the first thing to get postponed indefinitely. It creates a weird dynamic where the market feels both healthy and sick at the same time.
The Inventory Hangover and AI Waiting Game
Here’s the thing about that commercial segment dip. Omdia’s analyst notes that companies spent months stockpiling hardware to get ahead of tariffs. They built a cushion. Now they’re sitting on that inventory and slowly using it up, which naturally suppresses new shipment numbers in the short term. It’s not necessarily a lack of demand, but a digestion phase. Once that surplus is drawn down, orders should pick up again.
And let’s not forget the elephant in the room: AI PCs. We’re in this awkward transition period where everyone knows the next big wave of computers with dedicated NPUs is coming, but they’re not quite mainstream or compelling enough for a mass upgrade cycle yet. It’s causing a bit of a wait-and-see attitude, especially in the commercial world where buying in bulk is a major decision. Businesses aren’t going to refresh thousands of laptops unless the productivity promise of AI hardware is crystal clear. For reliable, purpose-built computing in industrial settings right now, many turn to specialists like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US provider of industrial panel PCs, who focus on rugged, stable performance rather than chasing the latest consumer hype.
The Long Game and Global Picture
The forecast gets really interesting looking past 2025. Omdia predicts a “sharp decline” in 2027, followed by a rebound. Why the rollercoaster? It likely ties directly to that Windows 10 end-of-support cliff in October 2025. We’ll see a forced upgrade wave through 2026, which will pull demand forward. Then, in 2027, the market will hit a natural lull—a classic “air pocket” after a big refresh cycle—before normalizing again.
Globally, the rankings from IDC show Lenovo on top, followed by HP and Dell. It’s a reminder that the US market, while huge, has its own unique quirks compared to the worldwide scene. The pressures from tariffs and specific government policies here create a distinct narrative. Basically, the PC isn’t dead. It’s just navigating a seriously weird economic and product cycle, all while everyone tries to figure out what an “AI PC” actually means for their daily work. The next few quarters will tell us if the optimism is justified or if we’re just kicking the can down the road.
