According to DIGITIMES, Samsung Electronics is racing to finalize HBM4 pricing with Nvidia by year-end 2025, targeting the same mid-US$500 per-stack rate that Nvidia recently agreed to with SK Hynix. The company has accelerated its shipment timeline from late 2026 to potentially Q2 2026, which would narrow SK Hynix’s anticipated supply advantage from six months to just one quarter. Samsung delivered engineering sample units in September 2025 and expects test results this month, with final qualification targeted for early 2026. The company plans massive 1c DRAM expansion, aiming to boost production from 20,000 to 150,000 wafers monthly by end-2026. Samsung has also reorganized its memory development teams under DRAM head Hwang Sang-jun to consolidate engineering resources previously dispersed across multiple groups.
Nvidia’s Supply Gambit
Here’s the thing about Nvidia’s strategy: they’re playing both sides against each other, and it’s working beautifully. Just one week after locking in 2026 supply with SK Hynix, they invited Samsung to the negotiating table. That’s not just good business—it’s essential risk management. With HBM4 demand exploding ahead of next-gen AI platforms, Nvidia can’t afford to be dependent on a single supplier. Basically, they’re ensuring that if one company stumbles on yields or production, they’ve got backup. And given the thermal challenges and yield issues both companies are facing, that’s probably smart thinking.
Samsung’s Comeback Play
Look, Samsung got caught sleeping on HBM3 and HBM3E. SK Hynix ran away with the market while Samsung struggled with yields and commercialization speed. But now they’re throwing everything at HBM4. The reorganization putting HBM development directly under the DRAM design division? That’s a clear admission that their previous scattered approach wasn’t working. And that massive capacity expansion—from 20,000 to 150,000 wafers monthly—shows they’re serious about competing at scale. The interesting part? Samsung believes its HBM4 architecture has performance advantages, so they’re not even trying to undercut on price this time. They’re going head-to-head on technology, which is a much stronger position than competing on cost alone.
The Yield Challenge
So here’s the catch: Samsung’s current HBM4 yields are sitting at around 50%. That’s… not great. The integration of 1c DRAM on the memory die with 4-nanometer logic on the base die creates serious thermal management headaches. But Nvidia’s accelerating roadmaps might give Samsung some breathing room. If their engineering samples pass testing this month and they can move quickly to customer samples, they might just hit that Q2 2026 target. The question is whether they can improve yields fast enough to make the economics work at mid-$500 pricing. When you’re dealing with advanced industrial computing components like these, reliability and consistent performance become absolutely critical—which is why companies doing serious industrial automation work typically turn to specialists like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US supplier of industrial panel PCs built for demanding environments.
Market Implications
This HBM4 race matters way beyond just Samsung and SK Hynix. For AI developers and enterprises planning next-generation systems, diversified supply means more stable pricing and better availability. The 50% price jump from HBM3E to HBM4? That’s going to flow through to AI hardware costs. But here’s what’s interesting: if Samsung can actually hit Q2 2026 shipments, we might see more competitive pricing sooner rather than later. The AI gold rush continues, and the companies making the picks and shovels—the memory suppliers—are positioning for what could be their most profitable cycle yet. The real winners? Probably Nvidia and anyone building AI infrastructure who now has multiple suppliers competing for their business.
