According to TechCrunch, Shopify reported during its third-quarter earnings call that traffic from AI tools to its online stores has increased seven times since January 2024, while purchases attributed to AI-powered search have jumped by 11 times. The e-commerce platform, which partnered with OpenAI in September, called AI “the biggest shift in technology since the internet” and revealed that 64% of shoppers in a recent survey said they’re likely to use AI when making purchases. President Harley Finkelstein emphasized that Shopify’s advantage comes from accessing data from millions of merchants and billions of transactions, with internal tools like Scout helping employees analyze merchant feedback. The company is also working with Perplexity and Microsoft Copilot on additional shopping experiences. Separately, Shopify reported Q3 revenue of $2.84 billion, up 32% and beating estimates, with profit of $264 million, though the stock declined due to operating income of $434 million missing expectations by $3 million.
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Impressive Numbers, Skeptical Market
Those growth numbers are absolutely staggering – 7x traffic and 11x orders in just nine months? That’s the kind of hockey stick growth that makes investors drool. But here’s the thing: the market didn’t seem to care. The stock actually sagged after earnings because operating income came in slightly below expectations. It’s a classic case of “beat on the top line, miss on the bottom line” that shows how fickle Wall Street can be about these things.
I can’t help but wonder if there’s some AI hype fatigue setting in. Every company is talking about their AI numbers these days, and investors might be getting numb to the big percentage increases. When everyone’s growing 7x or 11x, those numbers start to lose their impact. Plus, we’re talking about growth from what was probably a very small base in January. Going from 100 AI-driven orders to 1,100 sounds amazing, but it might not move the needle for a company doing billions in revenue.
The Data Advantage Question
Finkelstein made a big deal about Shopify’s “founder mode” mentality and their access to data from millions of merchants. That’s definitely a real advantage – they’ve got this massive treasure trove of shopping behavior that AI models can learn from. But it also raises some interesting questions about data privacy and how much of this merchant data they’re actually using to train these systems.
And let’s be honest – having lots of data doesn’t automatically mean you’ll build the best AI products. We’ve seen plenty of big companies with massive data advantages completely whiff on AI implementation. The fact that they’re building tools like Sidekick for internal use is encouraging, but it doesn’t guarantee they’ll nail the consumer-facing AI shopping experience.
Agentic Commerce Reality Check
Shopify is pushing this concept of “agentic commerce” where AI shopping assistants do more of the heavy lifting. They’re basically trying to lay the rails for whatever form this takes, whether it’s through ChatGPT, Perplexity, or other platforms. That’s smart – they’re covering their bases rather than betting everything on one horse.
But I’m skeptical about how quickly this will actually transform shopping. The 64% of shoppers who say they’re “likely” to use AI sounds impressive until you remember that people often overstate their willingness to adopt new technology in surveys. The real test will be how many people actually follow through when faced with a real purchasing decision. Remember when everyone was going to shop through social media? That transition took way longer than anyone expected.
Long Game vs Short-Term Pain
Looking at their broader business, the revenue growth is still strong at 32% year-over-year. They’re clearly executing well on their core e-commerce platform. The AI stuff feels like they’re planting flags for the future while keeping the main business humming along.
The stock reaction seems shortsighted to me – missing operating income by $3 million when you’re doing $2.84 billion in revenue is basically rounding error territory. But that’s the market for you. If Shopify can actually deliver on this “agentic commerce” vision and those 7x and 11x growth rates continue, today’s stock dip will look like a buying opportunity. For now, though, it’s wait and see whether the AI revolution in e-commerce lives up to the hype.
