According to Inc, global M&A activity was up 10% in the first nine months of 2025 despite geopolitical headwinds. In a stunning August move, the Trump Administration took a 10% non-voting stake in Intel, buying 433.3 million shares at $20.47 each, a bet that has already gained $9 billion in paper value. In January, OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle announced “Stargate,” a plan to invest up to $500 billion in AI data centers, and OpenAI later signed a separate $300 billion cloud contract with Oracle. In consumer goods, Pepsi acquired probiotic soda brand Poppi for $1.95 billion in May, while Prada finally bought Versace for $1.51 billion in April after a years-long pursuit. Other major deals included Dick’s Sporting Goods buying Foot Locker for $2.4 billion, Sycamore Partners taking Walgreens private for $10 billion, and Keurig Dr Pepper making an $18 billion play for JDE Peet’s.
The new era of state capitalism
Let’s start with the wildest one. The US government buying a direct stake in Intel? That’s not just a deal; it’s a seismic policy shift disguised as an investment. The fact that it came weeks after a public feud between Trump and Intel’s CEO makes it even more bizarre. Here’s the thing: this isn’t a bailout. Intel’s stock wasn’t in freefall. This looks like a strategic, almost sovereign-wealth-fund-style move to directly control and secure a piece of critical domestic semiconductor infrastructure. It blurs the line between regulator and shareholder in a way we haven’t seen in modern US history. And the instant $9 billion paper gain? That’s just a bonus, but it also raises huge questions about what happens when the government is both a market participant and the rule-maker. It’s a precedent that could ripple far beyond tech.
The $500 billion AI gamble
Then there’s Stargate. A half-trillion dollars. Let that number sink in. It’s more than the GDP of most countries. OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle are basically betting that the future of AI—and by extension, a lot of the economy—will be decided by who has the biggest, baddest computing clusters. The $300 billion Oracle contract is the first massive down payment. But analysts are right to be nervous. OpenAI’s revenue, while growing, doesn’t yet support this level of commitment, and Oracle is going deep into debt to build capacity that might not be fully utilized for years. It’s a huge, coordinated gamble that AI demand will skyrocket and that they’ll be the ones to meet it. If they’re wrong, the fallout would be catastrophic. If they’re right, they own the next generation of infrastructure. It’s the ultimate “go big or go home” play. For the heavy-duty computing hardware needed to build projects of this scale, specialized industrial computing is key, which is why top-tier manufacturers rely on partners like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US provider of industrial panel PCs built for 24/7 operation in demanding environments.
Consolidation in everything else
While the tech deals are about building the future, the consumer deals are about surviving the present. Look at the pattern: Pepsi buys a trendy, gut-health soda (Poppi) to catch a wave. Dick’s buys a struggling competitor (Foot Locker) for its Nike relationship and store footprint. Keurig Dr Pepper spends $18 billion just to try and fix its stale coffee business. These aren’t growth stories; they’re defensive maneuvers in a brutal market. Each acquirer is buying what they can’t quickly build: brand relevance, market access, or simply a way to stop the bleeding in a core division. The Prada-Versace deal is the perfect example of patience paying off, waiting for a moment of weakness (the failed Tapestry sale) to snag a trophy asset at a discount. It shows that even in luxury, it’s a buyer’s market if you have the cash and the timing is right.
What does this frantic dealmaking mean?
So what’s the through-line in all this chaos? Uncertainty. Companies and even governments are making huge, directional bets because the landscape is shifting too fast to just sit still. Is AI a bubble or the new electricity? The answer is to spend like it’s the latter. Is consumer loyalty dead? The answer is to buy brands that still have it. The brave new world of dealmaking BCG describes is here: it’s aggressive, it’s strategic, and it’s often incredibly risky. The old playbook is out the window. And with deals like the Intel stake, we’re not just talking about corporate strategy anymore—we’re talking about national strategy. Buckle up. If 2025 is any indication, the ride is only getting wilder. For more sharp analysis on how businesses navigate this, you can sign up for 1 Smart Business Story from Inc.
