Unmasking Urban Carbon Footprints: Why China’s 2023 City-Level Emissions Data Demands a Rethink of Climate Strategy

The Critical Gap in Urban Carbon Accounting

As China accelerates toward its ambitious carbon peaking and neutrality goals, a groundbreaking 2023 dataset reveals previously overlooked dimensions of urban emissions that could reshape climate policy. While cities consume over 66% of energy and generate more than 70% of carbon dioxide emissions globally, traditional accounting methods have consistently underestimated the true scale of urban carbon footprints by focusing narrowly on direct emissions., according to industry analysis

The Critical Gap in Urban Carbon Accounting
Stark Disparities and Geographic Patterns
The Overlooked Elephant in the Room: Scope 3 Emissions
Methodological Breakthroughs and Uncertainty Management
Policy Implications and Climate Governance
Toward More Equitable Carbon Responsibility
The Path Forward for Urban Climate Action

The newly compiled full-scope emissions inventory for all 339 Chinese administrative cities demonstrates that Scope 3 emissions—those occurring outside city boundaries but driven by urban consumption—represent a massive, often unaccounted portion of total urban carbon footprints. This comprehensive dataset, covering Scope 1 (direct), Scope 2 (power-related), and Scope 3 (supply chain) emissions, reveals spatial patterns and quantitative disparities that challenge conventional approaches to urban climate governance., as related article, according to expert analysis

Stark Disparities and Geographic Patterns

The data reveals extraordinary variations in urban carbon profiles across China. The emissions in the top 10 highest-emitting cities are 90 to 160 times greater than those in the bottom 10 cities, highlighting the immense concentration of carbon responsibility in specific urban centers.

Geographic analysis shows distinct patterns across emission scopes: Cities with higher Scope 1 and 2 emissions predominantly cluster in southeastern coastal areas, reflecting their industrial density and energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, cities with elevated Scope 3 emissions concentrate in rapidly developing central regions, suggesting these areas bear significant carbon responsibility through their position in supply chains serving wealthier coastal cities.

The Overlooked Elephant in the Room: Scope 3 Emissions

Previous research, including work by Shan et al. and others, has primarily focused on Scope 1 and 2 emissions, creating a substantial blind spot in urban climate planning. The new dataset demonstrates why this omission matters: Scope 3 emissions frequently exceed the combined total of Scope 1 and 2 emissions in many cities, mirroring findings from international studies where supply chain-related indirect emissions account for over 56% of total carbon footprints.

This has profound implications for equitable climate responsibility. As Zheng et al. revealed, urban supply chain networks are associated with approximately 80% of total carbon emissions across 309 Chinese cities. Without comprehensive Scope 3 accounting, emission reduction responsibilities may disproportionately burden upstream cities within supply chains, while downstream consumption centers avoid their fair share of climate accountability.

Methodological Breakthroughs and Uncertainty Management

The research team addressed persistent challenges in urban carbon accounting through innovative methodological approaches. By employing Monte Carlo simulation methods to quantify uncertainties and conducting contrast validation against prior research, the dataset establishes new standards for transparency and reliability in urban emissions accounting.

The comprehensive framework includes Scope 1 emissions from industrial energy use, industrial processes, buildings, transportation, and agriculture; Scope 2 emissions from external power transfers; and Scope 3 emissions encompassing supply chain activities associated with 10 key materials imported into cities. This holistic approach enables cities to identify emission hotspots across their entire economic ecosystem rather than just within their administrative boundaries.

Policy Implications and Climate Governance

The findings arrive at a critical juncture in global climate efforts. With China aiming to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, cities represent the essential administrative units for implementing these strategies. The dataset provides the empirical foundation for targeted, effective emission control strategies that account for the full lifecycle of urban carbon footprints.

As noted in United Nations Sustainable Development Goals reporting, accurate urban carbon accounting through SDG 11 (sustainable cities) and SDG 13 (climate action) is fundamental to institutionalizing climate-responsive governance. This research directly supports these objectives by enabling cities to:

Develop more accurate carbon reduction targets based on comprehensive footprint assessment
Identify emission reduction opportunities throughout supply chains
Allocate climate responsibilities more equitably among cities
Track progress against both local and national climate commitments

Toward More Equitable Carbon Responsibility

The dataset reveals how current carbon accounting practices may systematically disadvantage certain cities. As Xia et al. demonstrated, the emission reduction achievements of nearly 186 Chinese cities were significantly influenced by mitigation efforts of upstream cities within their supply chains. This underscores the need for coordinated regional approaches to emission governance that recognize the interconnected nature of urban carbon footprints.

By making Scope 3 emissions visible, the dataset enables policymakers to address carbon leakage—where emission reductions in one city simply shift emissions to another location without net climate benefit. This represents a crucial step toward genuine, rather than symbolic, urban climate leadership.

The Path Forward for Urban Climate Action

The comprehensive 2023 dataset establishes a new benchmark for urban carbon accounting that aligns with international standards like the Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories while adapting to China’s specific urban context. As cities worldwide grapple with their climate responsibilities, this research demonstrates that accurate, comprehensive emission accounting isn’t merely technical—it’s foundational to effective, equitable climate action.

The methodology and dataset provide a replicable framework that could transform how cities worldwide measure and manage their carbon footprints. For Chinese cities specifically, they offer the detailed, scope-complete data needed to implement the country’s carbon peaking and neutrality strategies with precision and fairness, ensuring that climate responsibilities align with actual carbon impacts across entire urban economic systems.