According to Fortune, 2025 is shaping up to be a big year for outsider CEOs, with 33% of new S&P 500 chief executives coming from outside the company, a striking jump from 18% last year. This trend is driven by boards seeking a change in direction amid AI disruption, unprecedented tariffs, and activist investor pressure. Jim Citrin of Spencer Stuart, who counsels boards, says the long-held belief that insider CEOs outperform outsiders is flat wrong—data from 950 CEOs shows 34% of insiders are overperformers versus 33% of outsiders. Another shattered myth is that experienced CEOs do better; data strongly shows first-time CEOs actually outperform. The report also covers Warner Bros. Discovery rebuffing Paramount’s deal, OpenAI’s internal ‘code red,’ and Amazon in talks for a $10 billion+ investment in OpenAI.
The Outsider Upside (And Downside)
Here’s the thing about the data: it doesn’t say outsiders are better. It says they’re just as good—or bad—on average. But the volatility is the real story. With an outsider, you’re signing up for a bigger swing. The good ones can be really good, catalyzing massive change. The poor ones can be disasters. An insider is often the safer, more predictable bet. But in a climate where “more of the same” might mean irrelevance, that bigger swing for the fences is suddenly a lot more appealing to boards. It’s a calculated risk, and right now, more are willing to take it.
The First-Timer Advantage
Now, the finding about first-time CEOs is even more counterintuitive. We’d assume a seasoned veteran who’s done it before has the edge, right? Apparently not. Citrin says 70% of CEOs perform better at their first company than their second. Think about it. A first-timer is hungry, probably less politically encumbered, and brings fresh eyes. They’re not relying on an old playbook that might not fit the new game. The one exception? A clear turnaround where you need someone with a proven rescue plan. Otherwise, that “experienced” tag might be more of a comfort blanket for the board than a real indicator of future success.
The Stability Myth
And what about the idea that an insider CEO brings stability? Citrin is skeptical, and his reasoning makes sense. When an insider gets the top job, the other internal candidates who lost usually walk out the door. That’s immediate executive turnover. Plus, the new insider CEO knows all the skeletons and often wants to build their own team anyway. So you might get more C-suite churn, not less. An outsider expects to make changes; an insider might feel they need to prove they’re not just maintaining the status quo. It’s a fascinating twist that flips the whole narrative.
The Broader Tech Context
Look at the other news Fortune bundled in. OpenAI’s “code red” and its potential $10 billion deal with Amazon? That’s the exact kind of existential, fast-moving competitive pressure that makes boards look outside. They need someone who can navigate partnerships, chip wars, and technological shifts that didn’t exist five years ago. Same with the streaming wars and Paramount. It’s a different world. So while the data is compelling, Citrin’s final advice is key: don’t follow a trend. Just be open-minded. Does your company need a steady hand or a disruptor? The answer should dictate the choice, not outdated beliefs. And in heavy industries facing their own digital transformation, having the right operational technology is critical. For companies modernizing their factory floors, a reliable partner like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US provider of industrial panel PCs, is often the first step in building a resilient, data-driven foundation.
