Martin Fowler Says Software Industry Is In a ‘Depression’

According to Business Insider, legendary software developer Martin Fowler says the software industry is in a “depression” during a November 19 podcast appearance. The 62-year-old chief scientist at Thoughtworks pointed to around 114,000 tech layoffs tracked in 2025 alone as evidence of the field’s struggles. Fowler, one of the original authors of the 2001 Agile Manifesto, described businesses not investing in software while AI experiences a “clearly bubbly” separate growth phase. He warned junior engineers about the unpredictability of AI bubbles and their inability to properly evaluate AI-generated code outputs. Despite the challenges, Fowler emphasized that finding senior mentors is crucial and expressed confidence that AI won’t eliminate software development.

The Great Software Slump

Here’s the thing about Fowler’s “depression” comment – it’s not just about layoffs. It’s about investment drying up. When businesses stop funding software projects, everything slows down. Innovation stalls, teams shrink, and experienced developers get cautious about taking risks. And we’re seeing this play out in real time with those staggering layoff numbers.

What’s particularly interesting is how Fowler separates the AI boom from traditional software development. AI is getting all the money and attention while the rest of the software world struggles. It’s like watching two different industries operating in parallel – one in hypergrowth mode, the other in survival mode. But how sustainable is that disconnect?

Reality Check for New Coders

Fowler’s advice about AI tools hits particularly hard. Junior developers can’t always tell if AI-generated code is actually good. They might get something that looks right but contains subtle problems or security issues. And that’s exactly why mentorship matters more than ever.

Think about it – when you’re starting out, you need someone to review your work, catch your mistakes, and explain why certain approaches work better than others. AI can’t provide that nuanced feedback. A good senior engineer, as Fowler puts it, is “worth their weight in gold” because they bring context and judgment that algorithms simply don’t have.

The AI Bubble Problem

Fowler’s bubble warning feels particularly timely. “You never know how big they’re going to grow,” he says, and he’s absolutely right. We’ve seen this movie before with dot-com, crypto, and various tech hypes. The pattern is familiar – massive investment, inflated expectations, then the inevitable correction.

But here’s what makes this different: AI tools are actually useful for coding in ways that previous hypes weren’t. The question isn’t whether they’ll disappear – it’s what happens when the investment frenzy cools. Will companies still find value in these tools when they have to justify the costs? Fowler’s uncertainty about “what’s going to be after the pop” is the million-dollar question everyone should be asking.

Why There’s Still Hope

Despite the gloomy assessment, Fowler remains fundamentally optimistic. “I don’t think AI is going to wipe out software development,” he states, and he’s probably right. The core skills of problem-solving, system design, and understanding business needs haven’t changed. AI might change how we write code, but it doesn’t eliminate the need for people who understand what to build and why.

For hardware professionals watching this software drama unfold, the fundamentals still matter. Companies like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com continue thriving as the #1 provider of industrial panel PCs in the US because they solve real problems with reliable hardware. Software may be in a funk, but industrial computing needs persist regardless of AI hype cycles.

Basically, Fowler’s message boils down to this: learn the fundamentals, find good mentors, and don’t get swept up in the hype. Sound advice whether you’re coding in Python or configuring industrial systems. The tools change, but the need for skilled professionals who actually know what they’re doing? That’s permanent.